German Election 2013: 2. Long & short term prognosis

As long as the final results are not yet published by the “Bundeswahlleiter”, I was curious to see how accurate the institutes did forecast the election result. Obviously the last polls were quite a bit off from the final results, and even the initial projections from the first counted voting districts were not too accurate.

Here is the simple visualization for infratest dimap for the CDU/CSU, which is not too different from the other institutes. In the end, being 1-2% off isn’t that bad regarding the prognosis, but is too much if the results are that close as they were last night.

(Thanks to the guys at for compiling all the data, and sorry for the bad x-scale from MS-Excel)

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