{"id":525,"date":"2010-07-05T21:01:08","date_gmt":"2010-07-05T19:01:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/?p=525"},"modified":"2010-07-25T21:57:05","modified_gmt":"2010-07-25T19:57:05","slug":"who-will-win-the-tour-de-france-2010","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/who-will-win-the-tour-de-france-2010\/","title":{"rendered":"Tour de France 2010"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>July 3rd was probably the worst day to start the Tour de France, as many of us where captured by the quarter finals, which sent home nobody less than Diego Maradona&#8217;s dream team, which may dream for another four years now &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Although the world cup yet has to see its best matches, I will start to log the results in the usual ways as in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/tour-de-france-2005-update\/ \" target=\"_blank\">2005<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/le-tour-2006\/ \" target=\"_blank\">2006<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/le-tour-2007\/ \" target=\"_blank\">2007<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/le-tour-2008\/ \" target=\"_blank\">2008<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/tour-de-france-2009\/ \" target=\"_blank\">2009<\/a>. Contrary to the world cup, I swear not to give any <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/why-germany-wins-the-2010-world-cup\/\" target=\"_blank\">model<\/a> that predicts the winner &#8230;<\/p>\n<table border=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>Stage Results<\/th>\n<th>cumulative Time<\/th>\n<th>Ranks<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theusRus.de\/Blog-files\/Stage10.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Stage\" src=\"http:\/\/www.theusRus.de\/Blog-files\/Stage10.png\" border=\"0\" alt=\"Stage\" width=\"168\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<td style=\"font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theusRus.de\/Blog-files\/Total10.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Total\" src=\"http:\/\/www.theusRus.de\/Blog-files\/Total10.png\" border=\"0\" alt=\"Total\" width=\"168\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<td style=\"font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theusRus.de\/Blog-files\/Rank10.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Rank\" src=\"http:\/\/www.theusRus.de\/Blog-files\/Rank10.png\" border=\"0\" alt=\"Rank\" width=\"168\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; text-align: center;\" colspan=\"3\">(click on the images to enlarge)<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#8211; each line corresponds to a rider<br \/>\n&#8211; smaller numbers are shorter times, i.e. better ranks<br \/>\n&#8211; all stages are on a common scale,<br \/>\n&#8211; stage-results and cum-times are aligned at the median, which corresponds to the peloton<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">STAGE 2: QuickStep&#8217;s\u00a0CHAVANEL takes the lead &#8211; did Fabian ran out of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=8Nd13ARuvVE\" target=\"_blank\">batteries<\/a> \ud83d\ude09 ?<br \/>\nSTAGE 3: CANCELLARA recharged; further spread of the field<br \/>\nSTAGE 4: BOLE now last on a day without many changes<br \/>\nSTAGE 5: Almost 75% of all riders roll in in the peloton<br \/>\nSTAGE 6: GRABSCH &#8220;Loser of the day&#8221; &#8211; 9 drop outs by now<br \/>\nSTAGE 7: CHAVANEL back at the top, with a newly sorted field after hitting the mountains<br \/>\nSTAGE 8: ARMSTRONG falls behind<br \/>\nSTAGE 9: ARMSTRONG gains some ranks on CONTADOR but the gap grows<br \/>\nSTAGE 10: SCHLECK and CANCELLARA show quite opposite rank profiles<br \/>\nSTAGE 11: LEIPHEIMER and CONTADOR the only &#8220;constant&#8221; top 10 riders<br \/>\n&#8230;<br \/>\nSTAGE 14: Neither SCHLECK nor CONTADOR risk any kind of attack<br \/>\nSTAGE 15: CONTADOR does not show fair play \u00a0and gets yellow only due to a technical defect of SCHLECK&#8217;s bike &#8211; but what would you expect with so many doping allegations on his account &#8230;<br \/>\nSTAGE 16: ARMSTRONG still good for an extraordinary performance<br \/>\nSTAGE 17: 26 drop outs &#8211; the rest will most probably make it to the Champs-\u00c9lys\u00e9es<br \/>\nSTAGE 18: Not the day of HERNANDEZ, but he knows how it feels to be last &#8230;<br \/>\nSTAGE 19: GRABSCH and MENCHOV each get their 3rd place<br \/>\nSTAGE 20: The profile of the winner, Alberto CONTADOR<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/tour-de-france-2010-statistics-art-gallery\/\"><strong>See also the summary in this post<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">For those who want to play with the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theusRus.de\/Blog-files\/TDF2010.txt\">data<\/a>. The graphs are created with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/Mondrian\/\" target=\"_blank\">Mondrian<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>July 3rd was probably the worst day to start the Tour de France, as many of us where captured by the quarter finals, which sent home nobody less than Diego Maradona&#8217;s dream team, which may dream for another four years now &#8230; Although the world cup yet has to see its best matches, I will [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sports","category-tour-de-france"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/525","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=525"}],"version-history":[{"count":36,"href":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/525\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":649,"href":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/525\/revisions\/649"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=525"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=525"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=525"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}