{"id":1740,"date":"2013-09-23T20:54:05","date_gmt":"2013-09-23T18:54:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/?p=1740"},"modified":"2013-09-23T20:57:20","modified_gmt":"2013-09-23T18:57:20","slug":"german-election-2013-long-term-and-short-term-prognosis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/german-election-2013-long-term-and-short-term-prognosis\/","title":{"rendered":"German Election 2013: 2. Long &#038; short term prognosis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>As long as the final results are not yet published by the &#8220;Bundeswahlleiter&#8221;, I was curious to see how accurate the institutes did forecast the election result. Obviously the last polls were quite a bit off from the final results, and even the initial projections from the first counted voting districts were not too accurate.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theusRus.de\/Blog-files\/ElectionPrognosis.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/www.theusRus.de\/Blog-files\/ElectionPrognosisSmall.png\" width=\"579\" height=\"223\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Here is the simple visualization for <a href=\"http:\/\/www.infratest-dimap.de\/en\/\" target=\"_blank\">infratest dimap<\/a>\u00a0for the CDU\/CSU, which is not too different from the other institutes. In the end, being 1-2% off isn&#8217;t that bad regarding the prognosis, but is too much if the results are that close as they were last night.<\/p>\n<p>(Thanks to the guys at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.wahlrecht.de\" target=\"_blank\">wahlrecht.de<\/a> for compiling all the data, and sorry for the bad x-scale from MS-Excel)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As long as the final results are not yet published by the &#8220;Bundeswahlleiter&#8221;, I was curious to see how accurate the institutes did forecast the election result. Obviously the last polls were quite a bit off from the final results, and even the initial projections from the first counted voting districts were not too accurate. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1740"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1740\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1748,"href":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1740\/revisions\/1748"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}