{"id":1595,"date":"2013-02-24T20:35:31","date_gmt":"2013-02-24T18:35:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/?p=1595"},"modified":"2013-02-28T19:46:47","modified_gmt":"2013-02-28T17:46:47","slug":"global-warming-causality-vs-timeframes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.theusrus.de\/blog\/global-warming-causality-vs-timeframes\/","title":{"rendered":"Global Warming: Causality vs. Timeframes"},"content":{"rendered":"

The weather channel wetter-online<\/a> pointed me to the latest global temperature anomalies which made me think about this post. Everybody knows that worldwide temperatures are rising. Rising as well does the concentration of CO2<\/sub>, which is literally fueled by burning fossil fuels. Ok, here goes the proof that rising CO2<\/sub> levels correspond to rising temperatures:<\/p>\n

\"Temp<\/p>\n

As CO2<\/sub> is the “most famous” greenhouse gas and thus causes temperatures to rise, the whole thing fits – at least for the timeframe we are looking at, which is 1970 to 2000. (OK, putting the two quantities on selected separate scales is a bit cheesy, but this is how media will sell these topics to us …)<\/p>\n

Looking at the temperatures from 1880 to 2013 alone, gives rise to new questions when we look at the last decade:<\/p>\n

\"Global<\/p>\n

Looking at the smoothing spline for the monthly data, we see that global warming has stalled for almost a decade now – temperatures even seem to fall slightly.<\/p>\n

From the first plot we know that CO2 concentration rises steadily, even in the last decade. So let’s take a look at the correlation between global temperatures and CO2<\/sub> concentration.<\/p>\n

\"Global<\/p>\n

A simple linear regression for the years 1953 to 2003 (red dots) supports the causal relationship, and is supported with an R2<\/sup> of 0,61. Temperatures rose roughly 0.01 degrees centigrade per 1 ppmv. This was an easy to use model, which leads to apocalyptic temperatures when being projected some decades to the future, as CO2<\/sub> concentration rises roughly 2ppmv per year right now.<\/p>\n

Looking at the timeframe of 2003 to 2013 (green dots), the linear trend is slightly negative with an R2<\/sup> of 0,005, which leads to the conclusion that CO2<\/sub> does not really have an influence on the global temperatures right now. Brushing over an arbitrary decade shows, that this change is really unique since the mid 60s:<\/p>\n